Mielipidemittaukset ovat Suomessa perinteisesti olleet verrattaen tarkkoja. Esimerkiksi vuoden 2015 vaaleissa jokainen kolmesta säännöllisesti kannatuskyselyitä toteuttavasta tahosta oli viimeisessä mittauksessaan keskimäärin reilun puolentoista prosenttiyksikön päässä vaalituloksesta isojen ja keskisuurien puolueiden osalta.

Kuitenkaan mikään yksittäinen gallupien tekijä ei todennäköisesti saa arvioitua kannatusta täysin oikein, vaikka lähellä ovatkin. Usemman mielipidemittauksen painotettu keskiarvo antaa yksittäistä mittausta kattavamman kuvan tilanteesta.

Alla on kuvattu paitsi kotimaassa säännöllisesti puolueiden kannatuksia mittaavien tahojen mielipidemittauskeskiarvo siten, että se on painotettu kunkin mittauksen otantamäärällä, myös yksittäiset mittaukset sellaisena kuin ne on julkaistu. Kyseessä on siten keskiarvo, jonka kautta voi arvioida puolueiden kannatustasoa. Koska mittaajat ovat kotimaassa niin harvassa ja mitttavat puolueet niin moninaisia, ei alla yritetäkään oikaista mahdollisia mittaajan sisäisiä epätarkkuuksia. Listauksessa virhemarginaalit ja kannatukset ovat listattuna mittaajan esittämässä muodossa.

Kolmen viimeisen mittauksen painotettu keskiarvo


Kaikki mittaukset

ToteuttajaKeruuaikaKeskKokPSSDPVihrVasSFPKDSinMuutOtantaIlmoitettu virhemarginaali
Taloustutkimus 1.4.2019 9.4.2019 14.5% 15.9% 16.3% 19.0% 12.2% 8.7% 4.9% 4.3% 0.8% 3.1% 1253 2.3%
Kantar TNS 3.4.2019 7.4.2019 14.4% 17.5% 15.0% 19.5% 12.0% 9.6% 4.4% 4.1% 1.1% 2.4% 2000 2.3%
Tietoykkönen 25.3.2019 3.4.2019 14.7% 17.0% 13.4% 19.6% 13.3% 9.1% 3.9% 4.1% 2.0% 2.9% 1202 2.3%
Taloustutkimus 6.3.2019 26.3.2019 14.4% 15.8% 15.1% 20.1% 13.0% 8.9% 4.3% 3.5% 0.9% 3.1% 1222 2.3%
Kantar TNS 18.2.2019 15.3.2019 14.3% 18.1% 11.1% 21.0% 14.0% 8.9% 4.4% 4.2% 1.2% 2.8% 2490 2.0%
Taloustutkimus 6.2.2019 5.3.2019 14.1% 16.2% 13.3% 21.3% 13.7% 8.9% 4.7% 3.5% 1.8% 2.5% 1777 2.0%
Tietoykkönen 18.2.2019 3.3.2019 14.1% 18.1% 11.2% 21.3% 13.2% 9.0% 4.1% 4.1% 2.3% 2.6% 1198 2.3%
Kantar TNS 14.1.2019 14.2.2019 14.7% 18.6% 11.4% 20.8% 13.6% 8.7% 4.3% 4.0% 1.0% 2.9% 1693 2.0%
Taloustutkimus 14.1.2019 5.2.2019 15.6% 17.3% 12.0% 20.1% 14.6% 8.6% 4.0% 3.6% 1.4% 2.7% 1794 2.0%
Tietoykkönen 14.01.2019 28.01.2019 14.4% 19.7% 9.9% 21.0% 13.0% 8.9% 4.2% 4.3% 2.1% 2.5% 1145 2.4%
Kantar TNS 13.12.2018 11.1.2019 15.6% 19.5% 9.7% 20.9% 12.9% 9.4% 4.3% 4.0% 1.1% 2.6% 2282 2.0%
Taloustutkimus 10.12.2018 8.1.2019 16.1% 19.6% 10.2% 21.2% 13.6% 9.5% 2.5% 4.2% 1.0% 2.1% 1534 2.1%
Tietoykkönen05.12.201818.12.201815.5%19.6%9.7%20.7%12.9%9.1%4.1%3.9%1.8%2.7%11502.3%
Kantar TNS13.11.201812.12.201815.6%19.4%8.6%21.4%13.4%9.6%4.4%4.1%1.2%2.3%22802.0%
Taloustutkimus12.11.201804.12.201817.0%19.1%8.1%21.5%13.9%8.5%4.0%4.1%1.5%2.3%18102.0%
Tietoykkönen14.11.201823.11.201815.1%19.8%8.4%21.4%13.6%9.3%4.5%3.7%2.2%2.0%11642.4%
Kantar TNS15.10.201812.11.201815.4%19.7%8.7%22.4%12.5%9.7%4.4%4.0%1.2%2.0%23142.0%
Taloustutkimus03.10.201806.11.201816.5%20.2%9.8%22.7%11.3%9.2%4.3%3.5%1.1%1.4%20241.8%
Tietoykkönen12.10.201830.10.201815.2%19.9%7.7%22.0%12.9%9.5%4.2%3.8%2.3%2.5%11072.4%
Kantar TNS17.09.201811.10.201815.7%19.6%9.1%22.0%12.0%9.8%4.4%3.8%1.4%2.2%23862.0%
Taloustutkimus10.09.201802.10.201817.6%18.9%9.3%22.6%11.6%9.8%3.7%4.1%1.1%1.3%13942.1%
Tietoykkönen14.09.201827.09.201815.1%19.9%7.9%22.2%12.3%9.5%4.3%3.9%2.5%2.4%10522.5%
Kantar TNS20.08.201814.09.201815.5%19.7%8.7%21.4%12.9%9.6%4.5%3.9%1.6%2.2%15952.0%
Taloustutkimus13.08.201804.09.201817.8%19.0%9.4%20.3%12.6%9.1%4.3%3.5%1.6%2.4%14602.1%
Tietoykkönen13.08.201825.08.201815.5%19.8%8.0%21.9%13.1%9.1%4.2%3.7%2.1%2.6%11572.4%
Kantar TNS16.07.201816.08.201815.5%20.2%7.9%21.7%13.7%9.6%4.3%4.1%1.2%2.0%15442.0%
Taloustutkimus09.07.201807.08.201817.8%19.8%8.7%21.2%13.6%7.7%4.3%3.8%0.8%2.3%15012.1%
Kantar TNS11.06.201812.07.201815.3%20.2%7.8%22.1%13.2%9.6%4.3%4.2%1.3%2.0%16602.0%
Taloustutkimus06.06.201803.07.201816.6%19.7%10.3%20.3%13.9%8.6%3.3%3.6%1.1%2.6%15402.1%
Tietoykkönen06.06.201826.06.201815.9%19.7%7.8%20.2%13.9%9.4%4.6%3.9%2.6%2.0%11452.3%
Kantar TNS14.05.201810.06.201815.8%19.7%8.0%21.6%13.5%9.2%4.5%3.9%1.7%2.1%15202.0%
Taloustutkimus02.05.201805.06.201817.6%19.3%8.3%20.0%14.4%8.9%3.9%3.4%1.7%2.5%21151.8%
Tietoykkönen18.05.201831.05.201815.1%19.5%7.9%21.2%13.1%9.0%4.8%4.3%2.5%2.6%11522.4%
Kantar TNS16.04.201811.05.201815.7%20.5%7.7%21.2%14.2%8.7%4.4%3.8%1.7%2.1%15802.0%
Tietoykkönen19.04.201802.05.201815.9%19.5%8.0%21.8%13.2%8.7%4.6%4.0%2.1%2.2%11382.4%
Taloustutkimus03.04.201826.04.201817.0%20.2%8.5%20.0%14.9%9.1%3.7%3.3%1.5%1.8%15052.1%
Kantar TNS19.03.201812.04.201815.7%20.6%8.1%21.4%14.0%8.9%4.2%3.5%1.6%2.0%15302.0%
Taloustutkimus01.03.201827.03.201816.3%21.5%9.2%20.2%14.2%9.0%3.5%3.3%1.5%1.3%16032.1%
Tietoykkönen16.03.201826.03.201816.1%19.9%8.2%21.0%13.3%8.7%4.4%3.9%2.0%2.5%11482.5%
Kantar TNS19.02.201815.03.201815.9%21.1%8.5%20.8%14.5%8.5%4.1%3.2%1.4%2.0%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus07.02.201828.02.201817.0%20.0%8.5%21.0%14.5%8.9%2.9%3.3%1.6%2.3%16552.1%
Tietoykkönen14.02.201826.02.201815.5%20.5%8.7%19.6%13.6%8.8%4.8%3.9%2.3%2.3%11422.3%
Kantar TNS22.01.201815.02.201816.3%21.7%8.6%19.0%14.4%9.1%4.2%3.4%1.3%2.0%1400?
Taloustutkimus28.12.201706.02.201817.4%20.8%9.6%18.7%14.0%8.1%4.6%3.2%1.6%2.0%27481.6%
Tietoykkönen19.01.201829.01.201815.4%20.9%8.2%19.2%14.5%8.6%4.6%3.9%2.7%2.0%12082.3%
Kantar TNS12.12.201718.01.201815.6%21.9%8.1%19.0%15.5%8.8%4.4%3.4%1.5%1.8%1400?
Taloustutkimus29.11.201727.12.201717.8%19.8%8.6%17.8%14.0%8.8%4.6%4.0%2.3%2.3%15952.0%
Tietoykkönen08.12.201718.12.201716.2%20.8%7.8%20.1%13.7%9.0%4.8%4.1%1.8%1.7%11462.4%
Kantar TNS14.11.201710.12.201714.8%22.2%8.0%19.0%15.4%9.3%4.4%3.3%1.6%2.0%15552.0%
Taloustutkimus01.11.201728.11.201717.4%22.3%8.4%19.7%14.2%8.0%3.5%3.6%1.1%1.8%17741.9%
Kantar TNS16.10.201713.11.201715.1%21.4%8.7%19.0%15.7%8.8%4.4%3.3%1.6%2.0%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus04.10.201731.10.201717.4%22.8%6.9%18.4%14.0%9.0%4.9%3.4%1.3%1.9%14732.1%%
Kantar TNS18.09.201714.10.201715.4%21.9%9.3%18.1%16.1%8.2%4.4%3.3%1.3%2.0%14002%%
Taloustutkimus11.09.201703.10.201715.8%21.7%9.9%17.3%16.6%8.3%3.5%3.9%1.5%1.5%12042.3%
Kantar TNS21.08.201719.09.201716.1%21.1%9.2%17.8%16.7%7.9%4.5%3.2%1.3%2.2%17332.0%
Taloustutkimus21.08.201705.09.201716.2%20.8%10.3%15.6%17.8%8.2%4.5%3.3%1.4%1.9%11632.3%
Kantar TNS17.07.201718.08.201717.3%20.7%7.0%17.3%17.5%8.4%4.5%3.5%1.7%2.1%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus24.07.201715.08.201717.3%20.8%8.8%15.9%17.6%7.7%4.8%3.7%1.6%1.8%11622.3%
Taloustutkimus26.06.201718.07.201716.7%20.4%8.1%18.5%16.0%9.2%4.7%3.9%0.7%1.8%12482.3%
Kantar TNS19.06.201714.07.201716.4%21.0%6.3%19.6%15.5%8.9%4.4%3.3%2.5%2.1%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus13.06.201720.06.201717.0%21.3%9.7%17.1%15.1%8.0%4.0%3.7%2.3%1.8%12132.8%
Kantar TNS22.05.201716.06.201716.8%21.2%6.1%19.0%14.9%8.6%4.3%3.3%3.9%1.9%16072.0%
Tietoykkönen12.06.201713.06.201717.0%20.2%10.4%17.8%14.1%9.1%5.5%4.2%0.0%1.7%8503.1%
Taloustutkimus10.05.201706.06.201718.4%20.5%9.0%17.7%15.1%8.8%4.8%3.7%0.0%2.0%17741.9%
Kantar TNS24.04.201719.05.201717.7%20.6%9.4%18.7%14.3%8.6%4.6%3.7%0.0%2.4%15932.0%
Taloustutkimus10.04.201709.05.201718.4%21.1%9.6%18.6%14.6%7.7%4.5%3.6%0.0%1.9%19571.8%
Kantar TNS16.01.201711.02.201719.8%18.4%9.1%21.6%11.1%9.1%4.8%3.5%0.0%2.6%14002.0%
Kantar TNS19.12.201611.01.201719.9%18.7%8.6%21.7%12.1%8.5%4.4%3.6%0.0%2.5%14002.0%
Kantar TNS14.11.201608.12.201620.8%18.4%9.9%20.8%11.2%8.2%4.6%3.5%0.0%2.6%14202.0%
Taloustutkimus02.11.201629.11.201620.4%18.9%8.5%21.1%12.6%8.6%4.0%3.6%0.0%2.3%16772.0%
Kantar TNS17.10.201611.11.201620.9%18.6%10.1%20.4%11.6%7.9%4.6%3.5%0.0%2.4%14042.0%
Taloustutkimus05.10.201601.11.201619.6%18.8%8.5%21.2%13.6%8.7%4.0%3.4%0.0%2.2%14302.1%
Kantar TNS19.09.201614.10.201620.9%17.7%9.7%21.3%11.8%7.9%4.7%3.5%0.0%2.4%13442.0%
Taloustutkimus12.09.201604.10.201620.5%17.1%9.2%20.5%14.0%8.8%4.3%3.8%0.0%1.8%11321.8%
Kantar TNS22.08.201615.09.201620.9%17.9%9.6%20.2%12.6%8.6%4.6%3.3%0.0%2.3%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus15.08.201606.09.201620.7%17.7%8.4%20.0%13.6%9.3%4.7%3.6%0.0%2.0%14511.6%
Kantar TNS18.07.201619.08.201620.6%17.3%9.5%19.1%12.9%9.6%4.8%3.7%0.0%2.5%1400?
Taloustutkimus11.07.201609.08.201621.8%17.6%7.6%18.9%13.7%9.8%4.3%4.3%0.0%2.0%14191.6%
Kantar TNS20.06.201615.07.201621.1%17.8%9.5%18.7%13.3%9.0%4.9%3.4%0.0%2.3%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus08.06.201605.07.201621.1%18.6%8.6%18.2%14.1%9.2%4.3%3.6%0.0%2.3%14691.6%
Kantar TNS16.05.201616.06.201620.9%17.0%9.1%20.6%13.6%8.2%4.7%3.7%0.0%2.2%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus09.05.201607.06.201620.2%17.7%9.0%20.1%14.8%8.3%4.2%3.5%0.0%2.2%23111.3%
Kantar TNS12.04.201614.05.201620.7%17.7%9.3%22.0%11.4%9.0%4.3%3.4%0.0%2.2%16222.0%
Taloustutkimus04.04.201603.05.201620.4%17.0%8.5%21.5%13.5%8.5%4.5%3.6%0.0%2.5%26821.3%
Kantar TNS14.03.201611.04.201620.6%17.1%9.7%21.7%11.7%8.7%4.4%3.7%0.0%2.4%15052.0%
Taloustutkimus07.03.201630.03.201621.7%17.1%9.5%20.3%12.5%8.3%4.7%3.6%0.0%2.3%16901.5%
Kantar TNS15.02.201611.03.201621.5%17.4%10.2%21.4%10.9%8.3%4.5%3.5%0.0%2.3%15072.0%
Taloustutkimus03.02.201601.03.201620.7%16.9%9.0%22.9%10.7%8.9%4.5%3.9%0.0%2.5%16891.5%
Kantar TNS18.01.201612.02.201621.4%18.0%9.9%21.2%10.8%8.5%4.3%3.7%0.0%2.2%15832.0%
Taloustutkimus11.01.201602.02.201620.9%17.3%9.8%21.5%12.3%8.6%4.1%3.4%0.0%2.1%17921.5%
Kantar TNS14.12.201514.01.201619.7%17.9%9.6%22.8%11.1%7.9%4.5%4.2%0.0%2.3%15322.0%
Taloustutkimus07.12.201529.12.201521.4%18.7%8.9%22.7%11.7%7.3%3.9%3.4%0.0%2.0%13001.8%
Kantar TNS16.11.201510.12.201520.9%17.7%10.8%21.1%11.3%8.4%4.3%3.5%0.0%2.0%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus09.11.201501.12.201521.6%18.3%8.9%21.0%12.6%8.1%4.6%3.5%0.0%1.4%16231.6%
Kantar TNS19.10.201512.11.201521.6%18.4%11.0%19.6%11.6%8.0%4.3%3.5%0.0%2.0%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus12.10.201503.11.201521.7%18.3%9.8%20.7%12.2%7.4%4.4%3.4%0.0%2.1%19061.5%
Kantar TNS14.09.201516.10.201522.2%17.7%11.4%18.3%11.5%8.6%4.4%3.9%0.0%2.0%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus07.09.201506.10.201521.7%18.0%10.7%18.3%12.7%8.3%4.8%4.0%0.0%1.5%18371.5%
Kantar TNS10.08.201510.09.201522.3%18.0%15.6%15.0%11.1%7.8%4.8%3.5%0.0%1.9%16492.0%
Taloustutkimus10.08.201501.09.201523.0%18.9%15.0%14.4%12.4%7.6%4.2%2.9%0.0%1.6%15611.7%
Kantar TNS13.07.201507.08.201523.2%17.6%16.7%14.2%11.4%7.2%4.7%3.1%0.0%1.9%14002.0%
Taloustutkimus07.07.201504.08.201523.1%18.2%15.6%14.5%12.7%7.8%3.9%2.7%0.0%1.5%16711.6%
Kantar TNS15.06.201509.07.201521.9%18.2%17.6%14.7%9.8%7.9%4.5%3.3%0.0%2.1%17672.0%
Taloustutkimus03.06.201501.07.201522.7%17.3%15.6%14.6%11.5%8.4%4.5%3.4%0.0%2.0%21191.6%
Kantar TNS18.05.201511.06.201521.0%18.5%18.0%14.8%10.0%7.8%4.5%3.2%0.0%2.2%16692.0%
Taloustutkimus04.05.201502.06.201523.1%16.7%17.5%15.0%10.5%7.5%4.5%3.1%0.0%2.1%28801.6%
Kantar TNS20.04.201515.05.201521.1%18.0%19.1%15.1%9.3%6.8%4.6%3.4%0.0%2.5%14002.0%
Vaalitulos19.04.201521.1%18.2%17.7%16.5%8.5%7.1%4.9%3.5%0.0%2.5%